2026 赛前预测与博冷校准工作台
最近刷新：sync-balldontlie / partial/BallDontLie World Cup GOAT/写入 72 行
数据更新时间：07/31 21:12
返回比赛看板
JOR
约旦
FIFA 63 / Elo排名 57 / Elo分 1628
Group J
VS
06/28 10:00
ARG
阿根廷
FIFA 1 / Elo排名 2 / Elo分 2173

Argentina 略占基础面优势，但差距未到碾压，适合跟踪平局和一球小胜/小负比分。

基础方向
判断
阿根廷 胜

基础赛前模型 67.3%，不吃赔率，也不等于投注结论。

市场对照
判断
US sportsbook consensus + correct score

约旦 不败市场差 +18.6%，赔率只作价格与校准条件。

冷门校准
判断
47 / 轻度校准

约旦 不败：基础 32.7% -> 策略 35.0%。

策略 EV
判断
1-0

使用校准后比分概率，EV 152.0%。

基础胜平负概率

基础预测独立于赔率；策略概率来自下方冷门校准。

四层输出
基础为本地赛前模型预测；策略为冷门校准后概率；市场为赔率去水概率。
主胜基础 10.4% / 策略 10.9% / 市场 5.3%+5.7%
平局基础 22.3% / 策略 23.1% / 市场 11.2%+11.9%
客胜基础 67.3% / 策略 65.9% / 市场 83.6%-17.6%
预期进球
约旦
0.51
阿根廷
1.73
基础 xG 由球队强弱、攻防结构、赛程标签和伤停修正得到，不直接吃赔率。
比分预测
概率最高不等于最值得买。
Top 3
基础比分倾向
单边打穿
置信中

单边打穿为主，单方净胜2+ 39.4%，xG差 1.22，强弱打穿代理分 91.2%。

单边打穿65
单方净胜2+ 39.4%，xG差 1.22，强弱打穿代理分 91.2%。
低比分胶着55
2球及以下 61.2%，一球内分差 58.4%，防守/节奏代理分 55.0%。
常规比分46
2-3球区间 46.7%，总xG 2.24。
大比分开放33
3球及以上 38.8%，4球及以上 18.8%，攻防开放代理分 46.4%。
总xG
2.24
3球+
39%
4球+
19%
净胜2+
42%
0-2 15.9%0-3 9.2%1-3 4.7%0-4 4.0%
约旦 三段能力
攻击46
组织45
防守48
阿根廷 三段能力
攻击88
组织88
防守88
基础最可能
0-1
18.4%
0-2
15.9%
0-0
10.7%
策略校准后
0-1
16.9%
0-2
14.6%
0-0
10.3%
赔率价值
1-0
EV 152.0%
@ 31.00
0-0
EV 106.1%
@ 20.00
2-0
EV 99.2%
@ 96.00

比分概率热力图

显示校准后的策略比分概率；EV 绑定赔率快照：US sportsbook consensus + correct score

BallDontLie World Cup GOAT
0-0
策略 10.3%
基础 10.7%
20.00
0-1
策略 16.9%
基础 18.4%
8.50
0-2
策略 14.6%
基础 15.9%
5.70
0-3
策略 8.4%
基础 9.2%
5.95
0-4
策略 3.6%
基础 4.0%
8.25
1-0
策略 8.1%
基础 5.4%
31.00
1-1
策略 9.1%
基础 9.4%
17.00
1-2
策略 7.5%
基础 8.1%
12.50
1-3
策略 4.3%
基础 4.7%
13.00
1-4
策略 1.9%
基础 2.0%
18.00
2-0
策略 2.1%
基础 1.4%
96.00
2-1
策略 3.6%
基础 2.4%
48.50
2-2
策略 3.0%
基础 2.1%
41.00
2-3
策略 1.1%
基础 1.2%
48.50
2-4
策略 0.5%
基础 0.5%
68.50
3-0
策略 0.4%
基础 0.2%
3-1
策略 0.6%
基础 0.4%
176.00
3-2
策略 0.5%
基础 0.4%
158.50
3-3
策略 0.3%
基础 0.2%
141.00
3-4
策略 0.1%
基础 0.1%
4-0
策略 0.0%
基础 0.0%
4-1
策略 0.1%
基础 0.1%
4-2
策略 0.1%
基础 0.0%
4-3
策略 0.0%
基础 0.0%
4-4
策略 0.0%
基础 0.0%

赔率时间线

赔率只做市场对照和投注价格输入，临场和终盘需要重新计算。

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/16 21:07
胜 15.00平 7.00负 1.18/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-16T13:10:03.267Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 09:11
胜 15.00平 7.00负 1.18/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-17T01:10:03.309Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 15:11
胜 15.00平 7.00负 1.18/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-17T07:10:03.256Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 20:56
胜 15.00平 7.00负 1.21/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-17T13:10:02.891Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 09:11
胜 14.50平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-18T01:10:03.048Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 13:03
胜 14.50平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-18T05:23:04.810Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 15:07
胜 14.50平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-18T07:10:03.487Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 21:08
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-18T13:10:03.965Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 09:10
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-19T01:10:03.800Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 15:04
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-19T07:10:02.770Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 21:08
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-19T13:10:03.303Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 09:11
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-20T01:10:03.519Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 15:10
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-20T07:10:03.277Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 21:11
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-20T13:10:02.806Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 09:10
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-21T01:10:03.839Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 14:58
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-21T07:10:03.076Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 21:08
胜 14.50平 6.50负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-21T13:10:03.527Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 09:10
胜 13.50平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-22T01:10:03.490Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 15:09
胜 13.50平 7.13负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-22T07:10:02.769Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 21:10
胜 14.00平 6.88负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-22T13:10:04.704Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 09:10
胜 12.50平 6.88负 1.21/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=29; synced_at=2026-06-23T01:10:03.968Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 15:05
胜 13.00平 6.50负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=29; synced_at=2026-06-23T07:10:03.015Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 21:09
胜 13.00平 6.63负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=29; synced_at=2026-06-23T13:10:03.020Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 09:09
胜 14.00平 7.00负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-24T01:10:03.046Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 15:04
胜 13.50平 7.00负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-24T07:10:02.506Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 21:01
胜 13.50平 7.00负 1.20/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-24T13:10:02.755Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 09:10
胜 14.00平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-25T01:10:03.163Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 15:06
胜 14.00平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-25T07:10:03.023Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 20:47
胜 14.50平 7.00负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-25T13:10:03.232Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 09:10
胜 14.50平 7.13负 1.19/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-26T01:10:03.041Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 15:09
胜 14.50平 7.13负 1.18/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-26T07:10:02.555Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 21:06
胜 14.50平 7.25负 1.18/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-26T13:10:03.663Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 09:10
胜 15.00平 7.50负 1.17/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-27T01:10:03.545Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 15:08
胜 16.50平 8.00负 1.15/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-27T07:10:02.531Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 20:49
胜 17.00平 8.25负 1.15/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-27T13:10:03.180Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/28 09:10
胜 18.00平 8.50负 1.14/Spread -1.5O/U 3.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=28; synced_at=2026-06-28T01:10:03.596Z

赛前因子诊断

只展示赛前可追溯或当前可补录的预测输入。

约旦 模型结构
进攻代理
防守代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

阿根廷 模型结构
进攻代理
韧性代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

强弱差强度
100% / 历史可追溯
攻防差攻防
100% / 历史可追溯
弱队抗压状态
49% / 历史可追溯
低比分结构风格
41% / 历史可追溯
赛事压力赛程
38% / 历史可追溯
风格错位风格
37% / 历史可追溯