2026 赛前预测与博冷校准工作台
最近刷新：sync-balldontlie / partial/BallDontLie World Cup GOAT/写入 72 行
数据更新时间：07/31 21:12
返回比赛看板
ALG
阿尔及利亚
FIFA 28 / Elo排名 30 / Elo分 1756
Group J
VS
06/28 10:00
AUT
奥地利
FIFA 24 / Elo排名 22 / Elo分 1821

基线强度接近，赛前赔率、伤停和首发会显著改变比分 EV，需要赛前刷新。

基础方向
判断
奥地利 胜

基础赛前模型 36.4%，不吃赔率，也不等于投注结论。

市场对照
判断
US sportsbook consensus + correct score

阿尔及利亚 不败市场差 -9.7%，赔率只作价格与校准条件。

冷门校准
判断
50 / 轻度校准

阿尔及利亚 不败：基础 63.6% -> 策略 63.9%。

策略 EV
判断
3-0

使用校准后比分概率，EV 164.3%。

基础胜平负概率

基础预测独立于赔率；策略概率来自下方冷门校准。

四层输出
基础为本地赛前模型预测；策略为冷门校准后概率；市场为赔率去水概率。
主胜基础 34.7% / 策略 36.4% / 市场 27.4%+9.0%
平局基础 29.0% / 策略 27.4% / 市场 46.2%-18.8%
客胜基础 36.4% / 策略 36.2% / 市场 26.4%+9.8%
预期进球
阿尔及利亚
1.10
奥地利
1.13
基础 xG 由球队强弱、攻防结构、赛程标签和伤停修正得到，不直接吃赔率。
比分预测
概率最高不等于最值得买。
Top 3
基础比分倾向
常规比分
置信中低比分优先

常规比分为主，2-3球区间 46.7%，总xG 2.23。 需额外注意：低比分优先。

常规比分62
2-3球区间 46.7%，总xG 2.23。
低比分胶着60
2球及以下 61.7%，一球内分差 71.4%，防守/节奏代理分 61.9%。
大比分开放31
3球及以上 38.3%，4球及以上 18.4%，攻防开放代理分 34.4%。
单边打穿17
单方净胜2+ 14.8%，xG差 0.03，强弱打穿代理分 17.5%。
总xG
2.23
3球+
38%
4球+
18%
净胜2+
29%
1-1 13.4%1-2 7.6%2-1 7.3%0-2 6.9%
阿尔及利亚 三段能力
攻击55
组织56
防守58
奥地利 三段能力
攻击58
组织60
防守61
基础最可能
1-1
13.4%
0-1
12.2%
1-0
11.9%
策略校准后
1-1
11.8%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
11.3%
赔率价值
3-0
EV 164.3%
@ 73.50
3-1
EV 117.4%
@ 53.50
4-1
EV 101.6%
@ 181.00

比分概率热力图

显示校准后的策略比分概率；EV 绑定赔率快照：US sportsbook consensus + correct score

BallDontLie World Cup GOAT
0-0
策略 9.5%
基础 10.8%
4.30
0-1
策略 11.3%
基础 12.2%
6.15
0-2
策略 6.4%
基础 6.9%
15.75
0-3
策略 2.4%
基础 2.6%
51.00
0-4
策略 0.7%
基础 0.7%
81.00
1-0
策略 11.6%
基础 11.9%
7.25
1-1
策略 11.8%
基础 13.4%
4.30
1-2
策略 7.0%
基础 7.6%
11.50
1-3
策略 2.6%
基础 2.9%
38.50
1-4
策略 0.7%
基础 0.8%
141.00
2-0
策略 6.3%
基础 6.5%
21.50
2-1
策略 7.2%
基础 7.3%
14.00
2-2
策略 5.7%
基础 4.1%
16.50
2-3
策略 1.4%
基础 1.6%
56.00
2-4
策略 0.4%
基础 0.4%
226.00
3-0
策略 3.6%
基础 2.4%
73.50
3-1
策略 4.1%
基础 2.7%
53.50
3-2
策略 2.3%
基础 1.5%
66.00
3-3
策略 0.8%
基础 0.6%
116.00
3-4
策略 0.1%
基础 0.2%
4-0
策略 1.0%
基础 0.7%
4-1
策略 1.1%
基础 0.7%
181.00
4-2
策略 0.6%
基础 0.4%
4-3
策略 0.2%
基础 0.2%
4-4
策略 0.1%
基础 0.0%

赔率时间线

赔率只做市场对照和投注价格输入，临场和终盘需要重新计算。

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/16 21:07
胜 3.50平 3.25负 2.20/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-16T13:10:03.267Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 09:11
胜 3.50平 3.25负 2.20/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-17T01:10:03.309Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 15:11
胜 3.05平 3.15负 2.55/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-17T07:10:03.256Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 20:56
胜 3.05平 3.10负 2.48/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-17T13:10:02.891Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 09:11
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-18T01:10:03.048Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 13:03
胜 2.98平 3.13负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-18T05:23:04.810Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 15:07
胜 2.98平 3.13负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-18T07:10:03.487Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 21:08
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-18T13:10:03.965Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 09:10
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-19T01:10:03.800Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 15:04
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-19T07:10:02.770Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 21:09
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-19T13:10:03.303Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 09:11
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-20T01:10:03.519Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 15:10
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-20T07:10:03.277Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 21:11
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-20T13:10:02.806Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 09:10
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-21T01:10:03.839Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 14:58
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.46/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-21T07:10:03.076Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 21:08
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.50/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-21T13:10:03.527Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 09:10
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.50/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-22T01:10:03.490Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 15:09
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.50/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-22T07:10:02.769Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 21:10
胜 3.02平 3.10负 2.50/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=27; synced_at=2026-06-22T13:10:04.704Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 09:10
胜 3.33平 2.65负 2.67/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-23T01:10:03.968Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 15:05
胜 3.80平 2.42负 2.63/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-23T07:10:03.015Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 21:09
胜 3.77平 2.34负 2.77/Spread -1.5O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-23T13:10:03.020Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 09:09
胜 3.80平 2.27负 2.83/O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T01:10:03.046Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 15:04
胜 3.83平 2.30负 2.80/O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T07:10:02.506Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 21:01
胜 3.85平 2.29负 2.83/O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T13:10:02.755Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 09:10
胜 3.85平 2.27负 2.80/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-25T01:10:03.163Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 15:06
胜 3.80平 2.27负 2.83/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-25T07:10:03.023Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 20:47
胜 3.85平 2.27负 2.83/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-25T13:10:03.232Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 09:10
胜 3.83平 2.27负 2.83/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-26T01:10:03.041Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 15:09
胜 4.00平 2.20负 2.85/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-26T07:10:02.555Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 21:06
胜 4.00平 2.20负 2.88/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=19; synced_at=2026-06-26T13:10:03.663Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 09:10
胜 4.00平 2.19负 2.85/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=19; synced_at=2026-06-27T01:10:03.545Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 15:08
胜 4.00平 2.17负 2.88/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=19; synced_at=2026-06-27T07:10:02.531Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 20:49
胜 4.10平 2.10负 2.90/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=19; synced_at=2026-06-27T13:10:03.180Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/28 09:10
胜 3.45平 2.04负 3.58/O/U 2.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=20; synced_at=2026-06-28T01:10:03.596Z

赛前因子诊断

只展示赛前可追溯或当前可补录的预测输入。

阿尔及利亚 模型结构
进攻代理
防守代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

奥地利 模型结构
进攻代理
韧性代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

强弱差强度
11% / 历史可追溯
攻防差攻防
49% / 历史可追溯
弱队抗压状态
61% / 历史可追溯
低比分结构风格
48% / 历史可追溯
赛事压力赛程
38% / 历史可追溯
风格错位风格
41% / 历史可追溯