2026 赛前预测与博冷校准工作台
最近刷新：sync-balldontlie / partial/BallDontLie World Cup GOAT/写入 72 行
数据更新时间：07/31 21:12
返回比赛看板
EGY
埃及
FIFA 29 / Elo排名 34 / Elo分 1742
Group G
VS
06/27 11:00
IRN
伊朗
FIFA 20 / Elo排名 29 / Elo分 1764

基线强度接近，赛前赔率、伤停和首发会显著改变比分 EV，需要赛前刷新。

基础方向
判断
伊朗 胜

基础赛前模型 36.0%，不吃赔率，也不等于投注结论。

市场对照
判断
US sportsbook consensus + correct score

伊朗 不败市场差 -9.5%，赔率只作价格与校准条件。

冷门校准
判断
40 / 普通预测

伊朗 不败：基础 64.9% -> 策略 54.4%。

策略 EV
判断
0-3

使用校准后比分概率，EV 47.3%。

基础胜平负概率

基础预测独立于赔率；策略概率来自下方冷门校准。

四层输出
基础为本地赛前模型预测；策略为冷门校准后概率；市场为赔率去水概率。
主胜基础 35.1% / 策略 41.2% / 市场 36.0%+5.1%
平局基础 28.9% / 策略 31.8% / 市场 36.2%-4.4%
客胜基础 36.0% / 策略 27.0% / 市场 27.7%-0.7%
预期进球
埃及
1.11
伊朗
1.13
基础 xG 由球队强弱、攻防结构、赛程标签和伤停修正得到，不直接吃赔率。
比分预测
概率最高不等于最值得买。
Top 3
基础比分倾向
常规比分
置信中低比分优先

常规比分为主，2-3球区间 46.8%，总xG 2.24。 需额外注意：低比分优先。

常规比分62
2-3球区间 46.8%，总xG 2.24。
低比分胶着59
2球及以下 61.3%，一球内分差 71.2%，防守/节奏代理分 61.6%。
大比分开放31
3球及以上 38.7%，4球及以上 18.7%，攻防开放代理分 35.8%。
单边打穿17
单方净胜2+ 14.7%，xG差 0.02，强弱打穿代理分 17.9%。
总xG
2.24
3球+
39%
4球+
19%
净胜2+
29%
1-1 13.4%1-2 7.6%2-1 7.4%0-2 6.8%
埃及 三段能力
攻击56
组织58
防守55
伊朗 三段能力
攻击58
组织58
防守56
基础最可能
1-1
13.4%
0-1
12.0%
1-0
11.8%
策略校准后
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
11.1%
赔率价值
0-3
EV 47.3%
@ 56.00
1-4
EV 30.8%
@ 158.50
0-4
EV 17.8%
@ 158.50

比分概率热力图

显示校准后的策略比分概率；EV 绑定赔率快照：US sportsbook consensus + correct score

BallDontLie World Cup GOAT
0-0
策略 11.1%
基础 10.7%
5.75
0-1
策略 8.6%
基础 12.0%
7.50
0-2
策略 4.8%
基础 6.8%
17.50
0-3
策略 2.6%
基础 2.6%
56.00
0-4
策略 0.7%
基础 0.7%
158.50
1-0
策略 13.2%
基础 11.8%
5.95
1-1
策略 14.0%
基础 13.4%
5.22
1-2
策略 5.4%
基础 7.6%
11.50
1-3
策略 2.9%
基础 2.8%
38.50
1-4
策略 0.8%
基础 0.8%
158.50
2-0
策略 7.3%
基础 6.6%
13.00
2-1
策略 8.3%
基础 7.4%
10.00
2-2
策略 6.3%
基础 4.2%
16.00
2-3
策略 1.6%
基础 1.6%
51.00
2-4
策略 0.5%
基础 0.4%
171.00
3-0
策略 2.7%
基础 2.4%
35.00
3-1
策略 3.1%
基础 2.8%
30.00
3-2
策略 1.7%
基础 1.6%
38.50
3-3
策略 0.9%
基础 0.6%
88.50
3-4
策略 0.2%
基础 0.2%
4-0
策略 0.8%
基础 0.7%
106.00
4-1
策略 0.8%
基础 0.8%
101.00
4-2
策略 0.5%
基础 0.4%
143.50
4-3
策略 0.2%
基础 0.2%
4-4
策略 0.1%
基础 0.0%

赔率时间线

赔率只做市场对照和投注价格输入，临场和终盘需要重新计算。

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/16 21:07
胜 2.17平 3.10负 3.55/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-16T13:10:03.267Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 09:11
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-17T01:10:03.309Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 15:11
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-17T07:10:03.256Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/17 20:56
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-17T13:10:02.891Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 09:11
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-18T01:10:03.048Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 13:03
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-18T05:23:04.810Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 15:07
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-18T07:10:03.487Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/18 21:08
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-18T13:10:03.965Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 09:10
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-19T01:10:03.800Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 15:04
胜 2.10平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-19T07:10:02.770Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/19 21:09
胜 2.13平 3.13负 3.67/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-19T13:10:03.303Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 09:11
胜 2.08平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-20T01:10:03.519Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 15:10
胜 2.08平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-20T07:10:03.277Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/20 21:11
胜 2.08平 3.15负 3.83/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-20T13:10:02.806Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 09:10
胜 2.06平 3.17负 3.90/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-21T01:10:03.839Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 14:58
胜 2.06平 3.17负 3.90/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-21T07:10:03.076Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/21 21:08
胜 2.06平 3.17负 3.90/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=24; synced_at=2026-06-21T13:10:03.527Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 09:10
胜 2.19平 2.92负 3.95/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, draftkings, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-22T01:10:03.490Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 15:09
胜 2.40平 2.75负 3.63/Spread -1.5O/U 4.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=25; synced_at=2026-06-22T07:10:02.769Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/22 21:10
胜 2.40平 2.71负 3.75/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=21; synced_at=2026-06-22T13:10:04.704Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 09:10
胜 2.40平 2.73负 3.65/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=23; synced_at=2026-06-23T01:10:03.968Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 15:05
胜 2.40平 2.75负 3.67/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=23; synced_at=2026-06-23T07:10:03.015Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/23 21:09
胜 2.42平 2.65负 3.77/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=23; synced_at=2026-06-23T13:10:03.020Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 09:09
胜 2.40平 2.65负 3.80/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T01:10:03.046Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 15:04
胜 2.42平 2.65负 3.80/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T07:10:02.506Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/24 21:01
胜 2.45平 2.65负 3.75/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-24T13:10:02.755Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 09:10
胜 2.45平 2.63负 3.73/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-25T01:10:03.163Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 15:06
胜 2.45平 2.67负 3.58/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-25T07:10:03.023Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/25 20:47
胜 2.42平 2.64负 3.70/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-25T13:10:03.232Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 09:10
胜 2.42平 2.65负 3.75/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-26T01:10:03.041Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 15:09
胜 2.44平 2.59负 3.75/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-26T07:10:02.555Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/26 21:06
胜 2.44平 2.59负 3.85/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-26T13:10:03.663Z

US sportsbook consensus + correct score
06/27 09:10
胜 2.62平 2.60负 3.40/Spread -1.5O/U 1.5

vendors=betmgm, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, fanatics, fanduel; correct_score_single=22; synced_at=2026-06-27T01:10:03.545Z

赛前因子诊断

只展示赛前可追溯或当前可补录的预测输入。

埃及 模型结构
进攻代理
防守代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

伊朗 模型结构
进攻代理
韧性代理
伤停影响

历史结果基线 + 人工状态待补充

强弱差强度
9% / 历史可追溯
攻防差攻防
43% / 历史可追溯
弱队抗压状态
57% / 历史可追溯
低比分结构风格
46% / 历史可追溯
赛事压力赛程
38% / 历史可追溯
风格错位风格
40% / 历史可追溯